Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage

Ajax

41
Won

Vojvodina

The model leans Ajax at 52%. Expected goals: Ajax 2.07, Vojvodina 1.09. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 59%. Ajax won 5 of their last 6; Vojvodina won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Ajax59%1.70
XDraw23%4.41
2Vojvodina18%5.45

Pick: Ajax. Calibrated probability 52% (raw model output 59%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.07 – 1.09
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.561%39%
3.539%61%
Both teams to scoreYes58%No42%

Most likely scores

  • 219.9%
  • 119.6%
  • 209.1%
  • 108.8%
  • 316.8%
  • 306.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Ajax −1
Ajax lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.537%63%
-137%23%40%
-0.560%40%
060%21%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%12%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.