Roma
Atalanta
The model leans Roma at 50%. Expected goals: Roma 1.59, Atalanta 1.02. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 52%. Roma won 3 of their last 6; Atalanta won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Roma | 49% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Atalanta | 23% | 4.34 | – | – | – |
Pick: Roma. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.02| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes51% | No49% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.9%
- 1–011.8%
- 2–19.5%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–17.5%
- 0–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Roma −0.5| Roma line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| -1 | 26% | 24% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.