Albirex Niigata
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
The model leans Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo at 29%. Expected goals: Albirex Niigata 1.11, Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Albirex Niigata won 4 of their last 6; Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Albirex Niigata | 34% | 2.96 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | 35% | 2.88 | – | – | – |
Pick: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 35%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.11 – 1.13| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–011.8%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Albirex Niigata 0| Albirex Niigata line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 21% | 65% |
| -0.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| 0 | 35% | 29% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.