Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Lunds BK

03
Won

Hässleholms IF

The model leans Hässleholms IF at 36%. Expected goals: Lunds BK 1.53, Hässleholms IF 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. Lunds BK won 3 of their last 6; Hässleholms IF won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Lunds BK36%2.77
XDraw26%3.86
2Hässleholms IF38%2.63

Pick: Hässleholms IF. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.53 – 1.58
LineOverUnder
1.582%18%
2.560%40%
3.538%62%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 1110.8%
  • 128.5%
  • 218.3%
  • 017.0%
  • 106.8%
  • 226.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Lunds BK 0
Lunds BK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.518%82%
-118%19%63%
-0.537%63%
037%24%39%
+0.561%39%
+161%20%19%
+1.581%19%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.