Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Trelleborgs FF

22
Lost

Lunds BK

The model leans Trelleborgs FF at 44%. Expected goals: Trelleborgs FF 1.89, Lunds BK 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. Trelleborgs FF won 2 of their last 6; Lunds BK won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Trelleborgs FF47%2.11
XDraw24%4.12
2Lunds BK28%3.54

Pick: Trelleborgs FF. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.89 – 1.43
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.565%35%
3.543%57%
Both teams to scoreYes65%No35%

Most likely scores

  • 119.8%
  • 219.2%
  • 127.0%
  • 106.8%
  • 226.6%
  • 206.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Trelleborgs FF −0.5
Trelleborgs FF lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.527%73%
-127%21%52%
-0.548%52%
048%22%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%16%13%
+1.587%13%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.