Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Kristianstad FC

00
Lost

Trelleborgs FF

The model leans Trelleborgs FF at 50%. Expected goals: Kristianstad FC 1.26, Trelleborgs FF 2.00. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. Kristianstad FC won 2 of their last 6; Trelleborgs FF won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Kristianstad FC23%4.36
XDraw24%4.24
2Trelleborgs FF53%1.87

Pick: Trelleborgs FF. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.26 – 2.00
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes62%No38%

Most likely scores

  • 119.7%
  • 129.7%
  • 017.7%
  • 027.7%
  • 136.4%
  • 216.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Trelleborgs FF −0.5
Kristianstad FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.510%90%
-110%14%76%
-0.524%76%
024%22%54%
+0.546%54%
+146%22%32%
+1.568%32%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.