Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Trollhättan FC

21
Lost

Trelleborgs FF

The model leans Trelleborgs FF at 42%. Expected goals: Trollhättan FC 1.79, Trelleborgs FF 2.12. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. Trollhättan FC won 3 of their last 6; Trelleborgs FF won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Trollhättan FC32%3.08
XDraw22%4.50
2Trelleborgs FF45%2.21

Pick: Trelleborgs FF. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.79 – 2.12
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.575%25%
3.555%45%
Both teams to scoreYes73%No27%

Most likely scores

  • 128.1%
  • 117.6%
  • 227.2%
  • 216.8%
  • 135.7%
  • 235.1%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Trelleborgs FF −0.5
Trollhättan FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.517%83%
-117%16%67%
-0.533%67%
033%21%46%
+0.554%46%
+154%19%27%
+1.573%27%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.