AFC Malmoe
Trelleborgs FF
The model leans AFC Malmoe at 37%. Expected goals: AFC Malmoe 1.77, Trelleborgs FF 1.67. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%. AFC Malmoe won 1 of their last 6; Trelleborgs FF won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Malmoe | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.11 | – | – | – |
| 2Trelleborgs FF | 36% | 2.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: AFC Malmoe. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.77 – 1.67| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 2.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 3.5 | 45% | 55% |
| Both teams to score | Yes67% | No33% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.0%
- 1–05.7%
- 0–15.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AFC Malmoe 0| AFC Malmoe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 19% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 22% | 37% |
| +0.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
| +1 | 63% | 18% | 18% |
| +1.5 | 82% | – | 18% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.