Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

BK Olympic

22
Lost

AFC Malmoe

The model leans AFC Malmoe at 39%. Expected goals: BK Olympic 1.86, AFC Malmoe 2.05. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. BK Olympic won 1 of their last 6; AFC Malmoe won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1BK Olympic35%2.84
XDraw22%4.46
2AFC Malmoe42%2.36

Pick: AFC Malmoe. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.86 – 2.05
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.575%25%
3.555%45%
Both teams to scoreYes74%No26%

Most likely scores

  • 127.8%
  • 117.6%
  • 227.3%
  • 217.1%
  • 135.3%
  • 235.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: BK Olympic 0
BK Olympic lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.519%81%
-119%17%64%
-0.536%64%
036%21%43%
+0.557%43%
+157%19%24%
+1.576%24%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.