Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Lunds BK

71
Won

BK Olympic

The model leans Lunds BK at 53%. Expected goals: Lunds BK 2.47, BK Olympic 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 70%. Lunds BK won 3 of their last 6; BK Olympic won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Lunds BK60%1.67
XDraw20%4.99
2BK Olympic20%4.95

Pick: Lunds BK. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.47 – 1.42
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.574%26%
3.554%46%
Both teams to scoreYes69%No31%

Most likely scores

  • 218.9%
  • 317.3%
  • 117.2%
  • 226.3%
  • 206.3%
  • 325.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Lunds BK −1
Lunds BK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.540%60%
-140%21%40%
-0.560%40%
060%19%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%12%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.