Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Lunds BK

21
Won

Skövde AIK

The model leans Lunds BK at 53%. Expected goals: Lunds BK 1.80, Skövde AIK 0.80. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Lunds BK won 3 of their last 6; Skövde AIK won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Lunds BK60%1.66
XDraw25%4.03
2Skövde AIK15%6.61

Pick: Lunds BK. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.80 – 0.80
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.548%52%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes46%No54%

Most likely scores

  • 1013.4%
  • 2012.1%
  • 1110.7%
  • 219.6%
  • 007.5%
  • 307.2%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Lunds BK −1
Lunds BK lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.535%65%
-135%26%39%
-0.561%39%
061%23%16%
+0.584%16%
+184%11%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.