AFC Malmoe
Lunds BK
The model leans AFC Malmoe at 39%. Expected goals: AFC Malmoe 1.81, Lunds BK 1.58. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. AFC Malmoe won 1 of their last 6; Lunds BK won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Malmoe | 43% | 2.35 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
| 2Lunds BK | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
Pick: AFC Malmoe. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.81 – 1.58| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.7%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.6%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.1%
- 2–05.5%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AFC Malmoe 0| AFC Malmoe line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| -1 | 23% | 20% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 23% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 18% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.