Lunds BK
AFC Malmoe
The model leans Lunds BK at 44%. Expected goals: Lunds BK 1.92, AFC Malmoe 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Lunds BK won 3 of their last 6; AFC Malmoe won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lunds BK | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.17 | – | – | – |
| 2AFC Malmoe | 29% | 3.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Lunds BK. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.92 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.4%
- 2–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Lunds BK −0.5| Lunds BK line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 21% | 52% |
| -0.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| 0 | 48% | 22% | 30% |
| +0.5 | 70% | – | 30% |
| +1 | 70% | 16% | 14% |
| +1.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.