Predictions · Ettan Soedra · outside model coverage

Trollhättan FC

11
Lost

Ängelholms FF

The model leans Trollhättan FC at 42%. Expected goals: Trollhättan FC 2.06, Ängelholms FF 1.68. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 72%. Trollhättan FC won 3 of their last 6; Ängelholms FF won 0 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Trollhättan FC46%2.17
XDraw23%4.39
2Ängelholms FF31%3.21

Pick: Trollhättan FC. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 46%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.06 – 1.68
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.572%28%
3.552%48%
Both teams to scoreYes71%No29%

Most likely scores

  • 218.5%
  • 118.2%
  • 227.1%
  • 126.9%
  • 315.8%
  • 205.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Trollhättan FC −0.5
Trollhättan FC lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.527%73%
-127%20%53%
-0.547%53%
047%21%32%
+0.568%32%
+168%16%16%
+1.584%16%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.