AFC Eskilstuna
Karlbergs BK
The model leans AFC Eskilstuna at 41%. Expected goals: AFC Eskilstuna 2.40, Karlbergs BK 2.16. Over 2.5 goals 83%, both teams to score 81%. AFC Eskilstuna won 5 of their last 6; Karlbergs BK won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1AFC Eskilstuna | 44% | 2.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Karlbergs BK | 35% | 2.82 | – | – | – |
Pick: AFC Eskilstuna. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.40 – 2.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 67% | 33% |
| Both teams to score | Yes80% | No20% |
Most likely scores
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.5%
- 1–25.9%
- 3–25.6%
- 1–15.4%
- 3–15.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: AFC Eskilstuna 0| AFC Eskilstuna line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 18% | 55% |
| -0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| 0 | 45% | 19% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 16% | 20% |
| +1.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.