Rothes
Fraserburgh
The model leans Fraserburgh at 75%. Expected goals: Rothes 0.89, Fraserburgh 4.26. Over 2.5 goals 89%, both teams to score 58%. Rothes won 1 of their last 5; Fraserburgh won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rothes | 3% | 33.11 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 6% | 15.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Fraserburgh | 91% | 1.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Fraserburgh. Calibrated probability 75% (raw model output 91%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 97%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.89 – 4.26| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 96% | 4% |
| 2.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 3.5 | 75% | 25% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
- 0–48.2%
- 0–37.7%
- 1–47.3%
- 0–57.0%
- 1–36.9%
- 1–56.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 71% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Fraserburgh −2| Rothes line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 2% | 97% |
| -0.5 | 3% | – | 97% |
| 0 | 3% | 6% | 91% |
| +0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| +1 | 9% | 12% | 79% |
| +1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.