Strathspey Thistle
Formartine United
The model leans Formartine United at 67%. Expected goals: Strathspey Thistle 0.46, Formartine United 2.16. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 67%. Strathspey Thistle won 3 of their last 6; Formartine United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Strathspey Thistle | 6% | 17.30 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.58 | – | – | – |
| 2Formartine United | 76% | 1.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Formartine United. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.46 – 2.16| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes33% | No67% |
Most likely scores
- 0–217.0%
- 0–115.7%
- 0–312.3%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–07.3%
- 1–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 46% · BTTS No 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Formartine United −1.5| Strathspey Thistle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 1% | – | 99% |
| -1 | 1% | 5% | 93% |
| -0.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| 0 | 7% | 16% | 77% |
| +0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| +1 | 23% | 25% | 52% |
| +1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.