Strathspey Thistle
Inverurie Loco Works
The model leans Inverurie Loco Works at 55%. Expected goals: Strathspey Thistle 1.50, Inverurie Loco Works 2.78. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 74%. Strathspey Thistle won 3 of their last 6; Inverurie Loco Works won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Strathspey Thistle | 18% | 5.45 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Inverurie Loco Works | 64% | 1.57 | – | – | – |
Pick: Inverurie Loco Works. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.50 – 2.78| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 3.5 | 62% | 38% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.0%
- 1–37.4%
- 2–26.0%
- 1–15.8%
- 2–35.6%
- 0–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Inverurie Loco Works −1| Strathspey Thistle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 11% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 17% | 64% |
| +0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| +1 | 36% | 20% | 44% |
| +1.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.