Buckie Thistle
Inverurie Loco Works
The model leans Buckie Thistle at 53%. Expected goals: Buckie Thistle 2.63, Inverurie Loco Works 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%. Buckie Thistle won 4 of their last 5; Inverurie Loco Works won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Buckie Thistle | 60% | 1.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.24 | – | – | – |
| 2Inverurie Loco Works | 21% | 4.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: Buckie Thistle. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.63 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.2%
- 2–26.3%
- 1–16.3%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–05.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Buckie Thistle −1| Buckie Thistle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 20% | 39% |
| -0.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| 0 | 61% | 18% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 12% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.