Predictions · Highland / Lowland · outside model coverage

Buckie Thistle

20
Won

Inverurie Loco Works

The model leans Buckie Thistle at 53%. Expected goals: Buckie Thistle 2.63, Inverurie Loco Works 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%. Buckie Thistle won 4 of their last 5; Inverurie Loco Works won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Buckie Thistle60%1.66
XDraw19%5.24
2Inverurie Loco Works21%4.87

Pick: Buckie Thistle. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 60%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.63 – 1.54
LineOverUnder
1.592%8%
2.579%21%
3.560%40%
Both teams to scoreYes73%No27%

Most likely scores

  • 218.3%
  • 317.2%
  • 226.3%
  • 116.3%
  • 325.6%
  • 205.4%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Buckie Thistle −1
Buckie Thistle lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.541%59%
-141%20%39%
-0.561%39%
061%18%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%12%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.