Turriff United
Buckie Thistle
The model leans Turriff United at 39%. Expected goals: Turriff United 1.67, Buckie Thistle 1.43. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. Turriff United won 2 of their last 6; Buckie Thistle won 4 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Turriff United | 42% | 2.37 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Buckie Thistle | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Turriff United. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.67 – 1.43| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 3.5 | 38% | 62% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 2–19.0%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.5%
- 0–16.4%
- 2–26.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Turriff United 0| Turriff United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| -1 | 22% | 21% | 57% |
| -0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| 0 | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.