Predictions · Ecuador Liga Pro · outside model coverage

Manta

01
Lost

Delfin

The model leans Manta at 38%. Expected goals: Manta 0.92, Delfin 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 73%. Manta won 2 of their last 6; Delfin won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Manta41%2.42
XDraw39%2.59
2Delfin20%4.97

Pick: Manta. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.92 – 0.55
LineOverUnder
1.543%57%
2.518%82%
3.56%94%
Both teams to scoreYes25%No75%

Most likely scores

  • 0023.0%
  • 1021.1%
  • 0112.8%
  • 1111.7%
  • 209.6%
  • 215.3%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Manta −0.5
Manta lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%27%58%
-0.542%58%
042%36%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%16%5%
+1.595%5%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.