Manta
Delfin
The model leans Manta at 38%. Expected goals: Manta 0.92, Delfin 0.55. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 73%. Manta won 2 of their last 6; Delfin won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manta | 41% | 2.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 39% | 2.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Delfin | 20% | 4.97 | – | – | – |
Pick: Manta. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 41%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 0.55| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 2.5 | 18% | 82% |
| 3.5 | 6% | 94% |
| Both teams to score | Yes25% | No75% |
Most likely scores
- 0–023.0%
- 1–021.1%
- 0–112.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–09.6%
- 2–15.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Manta −0.5| Manta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 27% | 58% |
| -0.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| 0 | 42% | 36% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 16% | 5% |
| +1.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.