Manta
Barcelona SC
The model leans Barcelona SC at 47%. Expected goals: Manta 0.69, Barcelona SC 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%. Manta won 2 of their last 6; Barcelona SC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manta | 19% | 5.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Barcelona SC | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barcelona SC. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.69 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 2.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–117.9%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–211.3%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–27.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona SC −0.5| Manta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 15% | 80% |
| -0.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| 0 | 20% | 29% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 27% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.