Predictions · Ecuador Liga Pro · outside model coverage

Tecnico Universitario

10
Won

Manta

The model leans Tecnico Universitario at 46%. Expected goals: Tecnico Universitario 1.25, Manta 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 63%. Tecnico Universitario won 3 of their last 6; Manta won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Tecnico Universitario48%2.06
XDraw32%3.11
2Manta19%5.16

Pick: Tecnico Universitario. Calibrated probability 46% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.25 – 0.69
LineOverUnder
1.558%42%
2.531%69%
3.513%87%
Both teams to scoreYes36%No64%

Most likely scores

  • 1017.9%
  • 0014.3%
  • 1112.4%
  • 2011.2%
  • 019.9%
  • 217.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Tecnico Universitario −0.5
Tecnico Universitario lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.523%77%
-123%27%50%
-0.550%50%
050%30%21%
+0.579%21%
+179%15%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.