Orense
Tecnico Universitario
The model leans Orense at 50%. Expected goals: Orense 1.58, Tecnico Universitario 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 54%. Orense won 0 of their last 5; Tecnico Universitario won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Orense | 54% | 1.85 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.63 | – | – | – |
| 2Tecnico Universitario | 18% | 5.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Orense. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.58 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.2%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–011.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.0%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orense −0.5| Orense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 26% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 25% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.