Libertad
Orense
The model leans Libertad at 36%. Expected goals: Libertad 1.33, Orense 1.24. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%. Libertad won 3 of their last 6; Orense won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Libertad | 38% | 2.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.44 | – | – | – |
| 2Orense | 33% | 3.01 | – | – | – |
Pick: Libertad. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 38%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.33 – 1.24| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Libertad 0| Libertad line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 21% | 61% |
| -0.5 | 39% | – | 61% |
| 0 | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 20% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.