Aucas
Libertad
The model leans Aucas at 50%. Expected goals: Aucas 1.64, Libertad 1.07. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Aucas won 4 of their last 6; Libertad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aucas | 49% | 2.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.71 | – | – | – |
| 2Libertad | 24% | 4.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aucas. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.64 – 1.07| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–17.1%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 42% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aucas −0.5| Aucas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 24% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 25% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.