Aucas
CSD Macara
The model leans Aucas at 37%. Expected goals: Aucas 1.31, CSD Macara 1.11. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 50%. Aucas won 4 of their last 6; CSD Macara won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aucas | 40% | 2.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.33 | – | – | – |
| 2CSD Macara | 30% | 3.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aucas. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.31 – 1.11| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 1–011.7%
- 0–19.9%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–18.5%
- 2–07.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Aucas 0| Aucas line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| -1 | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| -0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| 0 | 41% | 27% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 19% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.