Delfin
CSD Macara
The model leans CSD Macara at 47%. Expected goals: Delfin 0.56, CSD Macara 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 69%. Delfin won 2 of their last 5; CSD Macara won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Delfin | 17% | 5.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.93 | – | – | – |
| 2CSD Macara | 49% | 2.04 | – | – | – |
Pick: CSD Macara. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 83%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.56 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 2.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 3.5 | 9% | 91% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 0–120.7%
- 0–018.1%
- 0–211.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 1–010.2%
- 1–26.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: CSD Macara −0.5| Delfin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 14% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 32% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| +1.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.