Independiente del Valle
Delfin
The model leans Independiente del Valle at 68%. Expected goals: Independiente del Valle 2.20, Delfin 0.39. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 70%. Independiente del Valle won 4 of their last 6; Delfin won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente del Valle | 78% | 1.27 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.93 | – | – | – |
| 2Delfin | 5% | 21.41 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente del Valle. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.20 – 0.39| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 26% | 74% |
| Both teams to score | Yes29% | No71% |
Most likely scores
- 2–018.1%
- 1–016.5%
- 3–013.2%
- 0–07.5%
- 4–07.3%
- 2–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Independiente del Valle −1.5| Independiente del Valle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| -1 | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| -0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| 0 | 79% | 16% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.