Independiente del Valle
Universidad Católica
The model leans Independiente del Valle at 50%. Expected goals: Independiente del Valle 1.84, Universidad Católica 1.14. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 58%. Independiente del Valle won 4 of their last 6; Universidad Católica won 1 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente del Valle | 53% | 1.90 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Universidad Católica | 22% | 4.46 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente del Valle. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.84 – 1.14| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes57% | No43% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–08.6%
- 1–26.1%
- 3–16.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Independiente del Valle −0.5| Independiente del Valle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 23% | 46% |
| -0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| 0 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 14% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.