Barcelona SC
Independiente del Valle
The model leans Independiente del Valle at 35%. Expected goals: Barcelona SC 1.19, Independiente del Valle 1.27. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 51%. Barcelona SC won 2 of their last 6; Independiente del Valle won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona SC | 33% | 3.02 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
| 2Independiente del Valle | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente del Valle. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.19 – 1.27| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.9%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–010.2%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 2–17.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona SC 0| Barcelona SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 27% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 21% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.