Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
The model leans Independiente del Valle at 47%. Expected goals: Leones del Norte 0.92, Independiente del Valle 1.48. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Leones del Norte | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.47 | – | – | – |
| 2Independiente del Valle | 49% | 2.05 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente del Valle. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.92 – 1.48| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 2.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 3.5 | 22% | 78% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 1–112.4%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–09.1%
- 1–08.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 52% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Independiente del Valle −0.5| Leones del Norte line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 16% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| +0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| +1 | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| +1.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.