Predictions · Ecuador Liga Pro · outside model coverage
Delfin
0–1
Won
Leones del Norte
The model leans Leones del Norte at 38%. Expected goals: Delfin 0.61, Leones del Norte 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 71%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match22
38
40
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Delfin | 22% | 4.59 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 38% | 2.64 | – | – | – |
| 2Leones del Norte | 40% | 2.48 | – | – | – |
Pick: Leones del Norte. Calibrated probability 38% (raw model output 40%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.61 – 0.93| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 2.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% |
| Both teams to score | Yes28% | No72% |
Most likely scores
- 0–021.4%
- 0–119.9%
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–25.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 69% · BTTS No 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Leones del Norte −0.5| Delfin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 17% | 77% |
| -0.5 | 23% | – | 77% |
| 0 | 23% | 35% | 42% |
| +0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| +1 | 58% | 26% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.