LDU de Quito
Delfin
The model leans LDU de Quito at 61%. Expected goals: LDU de Quito 1.72, Delfin 0.37. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 74%. LDU de Quito won 4 of their last 6; Delfin won 2 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1LDU de Quito | 70% | 1.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Delfin | 7% | 15.06 | – | – | – |
Pick: LDU de Quito. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 0.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes26% | No74% |
Most likely scores
- 1–021.2%
- 2–018.2%
- 0–012.3%
- 3–010.5%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: LDU de Quito −1| LDU de Quito line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| -0.5 | 71% | – | 29% |
| 0 | 71% | 22% | 7% |
| +0.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
| +1 | 93% | 6% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.