Predictions · Ecuador Liga Pro · outside model coverage

LDU de Quito

21
Won

Delfin

The model leans LDU de Quito at 61%. Expected goals: LDU de Quito 1.72, Delfin 0.37. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 74%. LDU de Quito won 4 of their last 6; Delfin won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1LDU de Quito70%1.42
XDraw23%4.32
2Delfin7%15.06

Pick: LDU de Quito. Calibrated probability 61% (raw model output 70%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.72 – 0.37
LineOverUnder
1.562%38%
2.535%65%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes26%No74%

Most likely scores

  • 1021.2%
  • 2018.2%
  • 0012.3%
  • 3010.5%
  • 117.9%
  • 216.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: LDU de Quito −1
LDU de Quito lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.542%58%
-142%29%29%
-0.571%29%
071%22%7%
+0.593%7%
+193%6%1%
+1.599%1%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.