LDU de Quito
Emelec
The model leans LDU de Quito at 51%. Expected goals: LDU de Quito 1.53, Emelec 0.65. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 62%. LDU de Quito won 4 of their last 6; Emelec won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1LDU de Quito | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Emelec | 15% | 6.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: LDU de Quito. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.53 – 0.65| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes37% | No63% |
Most likely scores
- 1–017.3%
- 2–013.2%
- 0–011.4%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.6%
- 0–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: LDU de Quito −1| LDU de Quito line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| -1 | 31% | 27% | 41% |
| -0.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
| 0 | 59% | 26% | 16% |
| +0.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
| +1 | 84% | 12% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.