Emelec
Mushuc Runa
The model leans Emelec at 41%. Expected goals: Emelec 1.32, Mushuc Runa 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 55%. Emelec won 0 of their last 6; Mushuc Runa won 0 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Emelec | 45% | 2.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.26 | – | – | – |
| 2Mushuc Runa | 25% | 4.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Emelec. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.2%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–09.4%
- 2–18.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Emelec −0.5| Emelec line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.