Independiente del Valle
Emelec
The model leans Independiente del Valle at 60%. Expected goals: Independiente del Valle 1.94, Emelec 0.69. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 57%. Independiente del Valle won 4 of their last 6; Emelec won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Independiente del Valle | 66% | 1.51 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Emelec | 11% | 8.84 | – | – | – |
Pick: Independiente del Valle. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 66%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.94 – 0.69| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.0%
- 2–013.6%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–08.8%
- 0–07.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 45% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Independiente del Valle −1| Independiente del Valle line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| -0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| 0 | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| +0.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
| +1 | 88% | 9% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.