Emelec
Aucas
The model leans Emelec at 32%. Expected goals: Emelec 1.16, Aucas 1.08. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Emelec won 0 of their last 6; Aucas won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Emelec | 36% | 2.76 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.17 | – | – | – |
| 2Aucas | 32% | 3.10 | – | – | – |
Pick: Emelec. Calibrated probability 32% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.16 – 1.08| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.4%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–010.7%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–27.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Emelec 0| Emelec line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| -1 | 16% | 22% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 29% | 34% |
| +0.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| +1 | 66% | 20% | 13% |
| +1.5 | 87% | – | 13% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.