Tecnico Universitario
Aucas
The model leans Aucas at 33%. Expected goals: Tecnico Universitario 1.14, Aucas 1.21. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 51%. Tecnico Universitario won 3 of their last 6; Aucas won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Tecnico Universitario | 33% | 3.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.27 | – | – | – |
| 2Aucas | 36% | 2.74 | – | – | – |
Pick: Aucas. Calibrated probability 33% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.21| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 2.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 3.5 | 21% | 79% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%
- 0–111.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–28.0%
- 2–17.5%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Tecnico Universitario 0| Tecnico Universitario line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 20% | 66% |
| -0.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| 0 | 34% | 28% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.