Técnico Universitario
Deportivo Cuenca
The model leans Deportivo Cuenca at 35%. Expected goals: Técnico Universitario 1.07, Deportivo Cuenca 1.17. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Técnico Universitario won 3 of their last 6; Deportivo Cuenca won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Técnico Universitario | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo Cuenca | 37% | 2.72 | – | – | – |
Pick: Deportivo Cuenca. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 69%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.07 – 1.17| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–011.4%
- 0–010.6%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–27.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Técnico Universitario 0| Técnico Universitario line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 13% | – | 87% |
| -1 | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| -0.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| 0 | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| +1.5 | 84% | – | 16% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.