Barcelona SC
Deportivo Cuenca
The model leans Barcelona SC at 45%. Expected goals: Barcelona SC 1.43, Deportivo Cuenca 0.89. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 54%. Barcelona SC won 2 of their last 6; Deportivo Cuenca won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona SC | 48% | 2.07 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.39 | – | – | – |
| 2Deportivo Cuenca | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barcelona SC. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.43 – 0.89| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.1%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona SC −0.5| Barcelona SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| -1 | 24% | 25% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| +1.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.