Predictions · Ecuador Liga Pro · outside model coverage

Universidad Catolica

21
Won

Barcelona SC

The model leans Universidad Catolica at 44%. Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 1.51, Barcelona SC 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Universidad Catolica won 1 of their last 3; Barcelona SC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Universidad Catolica48%2.10
XDraw28%3.53
2Barcelona SC24%4.18

Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.00
LineOverUnder
1.571%29%
2.546%54%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.3%
  • 1012.3%
  • 219.3%
  • 209.2%
  • 018.1%
  • 008.1%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Universidad Catolica −0.5
Universidad Catolica lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%24%51%
-0.549%51%
049%26%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%16%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.