Universidad Catolica
Barcelona SC
The model leans Universidad Catolica at 44%. Expected goals: Universidad Catolica 1.51, Barcelona SC 1.00. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 51%. Universidad Catolica won 1 of their last 3; Barcelona SC won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Universidad Catolica | 48% | 2.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.53 | – | – | – |
| 2Barcelona SC | 24% | 4.18 | – | – | – |
Pick: Universidad Catolica. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.51 – 1.00| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 1–012.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.2%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–08.1%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Universidad Catolica −0.5| Universidad Catolica line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 26% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 16% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.