Barcelona SC
Libertad
The model leans Barcelona SC at 50%. Expected goals: Barcelona SC 1.61, Libertad 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%. Barcelona SC won 2 of their last 6; Libertad won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Barcelona SC | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Libertad | 18% | 5.47 | – | – | – |
Pick: Barcelona SC. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.61 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 2.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 3.5 | 23% | 77% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.9%
- 1–111.7%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.4%
- 0–08.6%
- 0–17.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Barcelona SC −0.5| Barcelona SC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 26% | 44% |
| -0.5 | 56% | – | 44% |
| 0 | 56% | 25% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.