Manta
Orense
The model leans Orense at 42%. Expected goals: Manta 0.84, Orense 1.28. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 58%. Manta won 2 of their last 6; Orense won 0 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manta | 23% | 4.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Orense | 45% | 2.20 | – | – | – |
Pick: Orense. Calibrated probability 42% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.84 – 1.28| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 2.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 3.5 | 16% | 84% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.4%
- 1–112.9%
- 0–012.1%
- 1–010.1%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orense −0.5| Manta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 17% | 76% |
| -0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| 0 | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| +0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| +1 | 53% | 25% | 21% |
| +1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.