Manta
LDU de Quito
The model leans LDU de Quito at 50%. Expected goals: Manta 0.65, LDU de Quito 1.38. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 63%. Manta won 2 of their last 6; LDU de Quito won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Manta | 16% | 6.10 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.32 | – | – | – |
| 2LDU de Quito | 53% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
Pick: LDU de Quito. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 53%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 84%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.65 – 1.38| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 2.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 3.5 | 15% | 85% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–118.1%
- 0–013.1%
- 0–212.5%
- 1–111.8%
- 1–08.5%
- 1–28.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: LDU de Quito −0.5| Manta line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 5% | – | 95% |
| -1 | 5% | 13% | 82% |
| -0.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| 0 | 18% | 28% | 55% |
| +0.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
| +1 | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| +1.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.