Orense
Emelec
The model leans Orense at 47%. Expected goals: Orense 1.41, Emelec 0.84. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 56%. Orense won 0 of their last 5; Emelec won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Orense | 49% | 2.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Emelec | 21% | 4.76 | – | – | – |
Pick: Orense. Calibrated probability 47% (raw model output 49%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.41 – 0.84| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 0–010.6%
- 2–010.5%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–18.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Orense −0.5| Orense line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| -1 | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| -0.5 | 50% | – | 50% |
| 0 | 50% | 27% | 22% |
| +0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| +1 | 78% | 15% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.