VfB Stuttgart
1. FC Köln
The model leans VfB Stuttgart at 60%. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.72, 1. FC Köln 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 66%. VfB Stuttgart won 2 of their last 5; 1. FC Köln won 3 of their last 3.
Match result (1X2)
Market: closing odds, Bet365_default| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1VfB Stuttgart | 68% | 1.46 | 1.44 | 66% | +2 |
| XDraw | 18% | 5.71 | 5.25 | 18% | −1 |
| 21. FC Köln | 14% | 7.07 | 6.00 | 16% | −2 |
Pick: VfB Stuttgart. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 68%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.72 – 1.22| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 2–18.8%11.1%
- 3–18.0%10.0%
- 2–07.2%9.1%
- 3–06.5%7.7%
- 1–16.5%9.1%
- 4–15.4%6.7%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: VfB Stuttgart −1.5| VfB Stuttgart line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 48% | – | 52% |
| -1 | 48% | 21% | 31% |
| -0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| 0 | 69% | 16% | 15% |
| +0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| +1 | 85% | 9% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: closing odds, Bet365| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | VfB Stuttgart -1.25 | 54% | 1.85 | 1.88 | 51% | +3 |
| Asian handicap | 1. FC Köln +1.25 | 46% | 2.17 | 1.98 | 49% | −3 |
| Draw no bet | VfB Stuttgart | 83% | 1.21 | 1.18 | 79% | +4 |
| Draw no bet | 1. FC Köln | 17% | 5.83 | 4.50 | 21% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 | 1.44 | 65% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 34% | 2.92 | 2.63 | 35% | −1 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.