Villarreal
Deportivo A Coruña
The model leans Villarreal at 50%. Expected goals: Villarreal 1.70, Deportivo A Coruña 1.05. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. Villarreal won 3 of their last 6; Deportivo A Coruña won 3 of their last 5.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Marcaapuestas_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Villarreal | 52% | 1.94 | 1.55 | 62% | −11 |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.81 | 4.50 | 22% | +5 |
| 2Deportivo A Coruña | 22% | 4.52 | 6.00 | 16% | +6 |
Pick: Villarreal. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.70 – 1.05| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.4%
- 1–010.9%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–16.7%
- 0–06.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Villarreal −0.5| Villarreal line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 24% | 23% |
| +0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| +1 | 77% | 15% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Marcaapuestas_Spain| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 | 1.80 | 52% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 47% | 2.13 | 1.95 | 48% | −1 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.