Rayo Vallecano
Racing Santander
The model leans Rayo Vallecano at 50%. Expected goals: Rayo Vallecano 1.78, Racing Santander 1.20. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Rayo Vallecano won 1 of their last 4; Racing Santander won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Rayo Vallecano | 50% | 2.00 | 2.25 | 42% | +8 |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.93 | 3.25 | 29% | −4 |
| 2Racing Santander | 25% | 4.07 | 3.30 | 29% | −4 |
Pick: Rayo Vallecano. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 1.20| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 35% | 65% |
| Both teams to score | Yes58% | No42% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.8%16.7%
- 2–19.7%8.3%
- 1–09.0%8.3%
- 2–08.1%8.3%
- 1–26.5%–
- 0–16.1%–
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 52% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Rayo Vallecano −0.5| Rayo Vallecano line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 28% | – | 72% |
| -1 | 28% | 23% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| +0.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
| +1 | 74% | 15% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Rayo Vallecano -0.25 | 58% | 1.73 | 1.95 | 49% | +8 |
| Asian handicap | Racing Santander +0.25 | 42% | 2.37 | 1.90 | 51% | −8 |
| Draw no bet | Rayo Vallecano | 67% | 1.49 | 1.57 | 59% | +8 |
| Draw no bet | Racing Santander | 33% | 3.03 | 2.25 | 41% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58% | 1.72 | 1.62 | 58% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 42% | 2.39 | 2.20 | 42% | −1 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.