Athletic Club
Atlético Madrid
The model leans Atlético Madrid at 50%. Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.08, Atlético Madrid 1.86. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. Athletic Club won 2 of their last 6; Atlético Madrid won 1 of their last 4.
Match result (1X2)
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Athletic Club | 21% | 4.83 | 3.10 | 30% | −10 |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.04 | 3.30 | 29% | −4 |
| 2Atlético Madrid | 55% | 1.83 | 2.30 | 41% | +14 |
Pick: Atlético Madrid. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.08 – 1.86| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
model · bookmaker- 1–110.6%16.7%
- 0–19.9%–
- 1–29.9%–
- 0–29.2%–
- 1–36.1%–
- 1–05.7%9.1%
Bookmaker column: implied probability from the listed correct-score price, margin included (only the prices the book lists).
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Atlético Madrid −0.5| Athletic Club line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 14% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 23% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Other markets vs bookmaker
Market: opening odds, Bet365_Spain| Market | Selection | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asian handicap | Athletic Club +0.25 | 37% | 2.68 | 1.85 | 52% | −15 |
| Asian handicap | Atlético Madrid -0.25 | 63% | 1.60 | 2.00 | 48% | +15 |
| Draw no bet | Athletic Club | 28% | 3.63 | 2.20 | 42% | −15 |
| Draw no bet | Atlético Madrid | 72% | 1.38 | 1.62 | 58% | +15 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.80 | 1.70 | 55% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | No | 44% | 2.25 | 2.05 | 45% | −1 |
Two-way markets with the bookmaker's margin removed. Asian handicap uses the book's main line; on quarter lines the model figure averages the two neighbouring lines. Draw no bet is the model's home/away split with the draw removed. Information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.